Round 1.2 - The Real Stuff Begins

OK we had that one game on Saturday night but we all knew the result before a ball was bounced.  THIS week is where it all starts ladyfolk.  So lets get into it!

[By the way, it all starts on THURSDAY so get your tips in early!]

Round 1
Date	Home vs. Away	Venue	AEDT	Local	TV
Sat, Mar 24	GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans	ANZ Stadium	7.20pm	7.20pm	SEVEN
Thur, Mar 29	Richmond vs. Carlton	MCG	7.40pm	7.40pm	SEVEN
Fri, Mar 30	Hawthorn vs. Collingwood	MCG	7.50pm	7.50pm	SEVEN
Sat, Mar 31	Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions	MCG	1.40pm	1.40pm	FOX
Sat, Mar 31	Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows	Metricon Stadium	4.40pm	3.40pm	FOX
Sat, Mar 31	Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats	Patersons Stadium	7.40pm	4.40pm	SEVEN
Sat, Mar 31	North Melbourne vs. Essendon	Etihad Stadium	7.40pm	7.40pm	FOX
			AEST
Sun, April 1	Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles	Etihad Stadium	1.10pm	1.10pm	FOX
Sun, April 1	Port Adelaide vs. St Kilda	AAMI Stadium	4.40pm	4.10pm	FOX

First off is what is normally the annual kick the Tiggers in the ribs game.  They take on the Blues and if you all put yer picks in a few weeks ago, you tipped the Blues, didn't you! I know you did.  So did I.  But does NAB cup form matter?  Cos if it does... then you may want to reconsider.  The odds have come in from being $3.75 at one stage to now being $2.60!  Of course when they lose it doesn't really matter what the odds were eh?  But on their side, the Blues have a few injuries, with Walker, Warnock, Jamison, Duigan and Laidler out of their supposedly best 22.  Must say, they may be in their best 22, but not sure any of them are in their top 5. The Tiggers are pretty much at full strength.  And Jake King is playing for them.  Those two things feel incongruous.  He is still crap - I don't care how many push-ups he can do.  I'll stick with the Blues and will enjoy hearing how the Tiggs are rubbish by friday.

Massive game on the friday night - nice to see the AFL finally schedule something good early in the year cos last year's draw was pretty average.  The Hawks v the Pies eh?  What a stoush.  At full strength toss a coin.  This will be a pearler.  Both big bodied teams that will finish near the top of the table.  Both without a decent ruckman.  The Hawks have Buddy, the Pies have the midfield.  The Hawks have a system while the Pies are tweaking theirs.  I'll tip the Hawks.

The Dees n Lions.  Yeah yeah whatever.  Sorry Jimmy.  Just the facts.  Both teams are destined for the bottom rungs of the table, and the Lions without Browny are like pepper steak without the steak.  And pepper.  Early up in the season so home ground advantage will sway on this one - back the Dees to do it for Jimmy.  Meanwhile up at Metricon the Suns host the Mighty Mighty's.  I wish the Suns well, but the Crows will de-pants them.  Unless Daaaave picks em by over 91 points.  In which case we'll win by 90.

If you are looking for an upset then the Dockers could be your game against the Cats.  New coach, homeground advantage, not a lot of injuries (although not sure where Sandilands is at).  Yep... nothing against the Cats, they'll still be up top come the end, but the Dockers get my vote for this game.

The only thing upsetting about watching the Roos v the Bombouts is having to watch the game at all.  I guess it is one of those night where you can flick between watching the Dockers getting the upset, flicking over and checking on which Bomber is about to cry, and then flicking over to watch Rockwiz.  And then forgetting the games were even on.  Still, as boring as it will be, its a 50/50 game and there's no homeground advantage... I think the Bombers will just have this one.  But then again Petrie...

April Fools!  Yep sunday is April 1st, and the Paps will fool you all to somehow beat a boring boring ageing St Kilda.  Oh how they'll laugh.  Equally amusing will be the Doggies showing how poorly the Eagles travel and getting on the board... well... maybe not... APRIL FOOL!!!!

1st - Hawthorn

I can't help but think I've been sold a dummy with this one.  WHY are the Hawks finishing first on my table?  Clearly too much listening to Ando waffle on about how bluddy good Buddy is, how unlucky they have been with injuries, how nasty those umpires have been to them, oh woe is bluddy me.  The only thing I've heard more is "oh my, how far did I hit that ball?  I just can't control how BIG I hit the ball...".

P-uh-lease.

Let's have a looksie... Buddy.  Tick.  Cyril gets half a tick cos he plays well in half the games.  Sammy Mitchell is still performing well.  Hodge. Tick.  Roughy gets a third of a tick cos he will be injured or recovering from for most of the season.  Sewell has become very solid.  Hale could be handy in the Petrie sense of the word.  Suckling is good.  Solid second tier.  The Hawks should be well and truly amongst it at the pointy end.

2nd - Catters

Oh my - what can't they do with cats these days eh?  Those cheeky lil buggers!  There's no surprises in having them in the Top 4, and there's no reason why they won't finish top 2.  They've ditched that ugly b'stard Lingy.  No loss.  They've lost Ottens.  That's a loss.  Last year people said they were too old.  They weren't.  And they aren't again this year.

3rd - Pies

To be honest I am pretty sure that is the old Port Adelaide Magpies logo.  The Pies have had a cuppla good years, winning a Premiership and then finishing up losing to the Cats in the one that matters - the one for TWO IN A ROW.  I've always said that unless you win two in a row, yer rubbish.  The last team to do that was of course the Lions - they set a standard that the Cats can only dream about.  And hang on... who was it before that...?  Oh of course... THE MIGHTY MIGHTY'S!  Ah the golden years.  They'll be back.

But I digress.  The Pies.  New coach in Bucks.  To me their big weakness is Jolly.  Sorry big man but I really think your time was up at the end of last year.  You were a champion for 2 clubs and also played for the Pies, but me thinks you are one year beyond.  Still, it's hard to go past a team that currently boasts (literally) Penders, Swan, and dare I say Thomas... and ever Cloke on his day?  There's not 3 braincells between em but it's hard to deny they can play.  So why 3rd?  Well as I said... the ruck looks a bit weak... the loss of all-Australian Neon Leon will be hard to cover (cept for in a grand final), and I think there are a cuppla other teams that will step it up a bit as the Pies drop back...  but they'll definitely be around the mark, and once yer there, they will give it a shake.

4th - Carlton

You may well remember this wonderful membership drive put out by Carlton in 2010.  From memory they cooked up 7th - some would say they were a little premature.  Last year they stepped it up to 5th, and when I first went through the season a few weeks back, I foolishly had the Bluebaggers finishing 4th.  After all, they have managed to scab Juddy back from the West under circumstances not overly dissimilar to those involving Scully (Visy pay him a fortune for "advertising"), they have stolen a player who should be with the Crows (Gibbs should have been with the Mighty's under the father-son law but we wos wobbed!), Murphy has probably superseded Judd in terms of effectiveness, Walker was finally living up to his first game promise, they have a few smalls through the forward line, and they finally seem to have a defensive unit.

However after a NAB Cup drought - 0 wins from the series - people are having their doubts.  Me included.  Most of their defenders are injured, Juddy had a poor pre-season... I have to soldier on though... I have picked em 4th based on the original premise, and it would be surprising to see em finish outside the 8.  Smells like they're cooking straight sets losses in the finals then eh?

Grand Final/Spooner Picks Updated

Still a few need to send me their picks, and maybe start contemplating paying me - $30.  Email me at work and I'll send you my details.  I'll put up a list towards the end of the week when I get a chance.

Round 1.1 Sydney Squared

I made my way out to the first game for the GWS on Saturday night and have to say there's a lotta love in Sydney for the Giants - and most of it by Swans supporters.  That said, there was a bit of orange around the ground, and they're off to a good start.  And in good news for the Tinies, they were actually missing a few of the senior players that should be back on board in 2 weeks time.  Although James McDonald won't be one of them.  So what about Izzy?  Safe to say he probably wouldn't be playing in two weeks time if he was any other player... He jogged around the ground lookin like a lost lamb (big bluddy lamb) for most of the game.  He's got a long way to go...  So are the Tinies gonna win a game...? Hmmm... lets just say most of your Wooden Spooner tips are looking pretty safe.

The Swans looked ok.  Josh Kennedy had a massive game.  Sam Reid took a cuppla strong grabs.  Teddy Richards was solid across half back.  But will they have enough to take on the top teams... we'll see.

5th - Mighty Mighty's

My Hero!  Damn what a handsome dude - it's like looking in a mirror although his hair isn't the jet black that covers my bonnet.

They say NAB Cup form means nothing coming into the real season but that is just a line trotted out by teams that lose.  Winning form is good form.  The Mighty Mighty's have had 2 seasons in the crapper, not helped by injuries to  some key players and not enough mullets.  But this year the Crows are chockas full of the good stuff.  Walker has switched to the heavy beers, Vince has bought some fully reversible shorts,  Porps has has some extra rubber bands attached to his shoulder, and we've brought back another ex-Sturt player to lead the club in Sando.  What can go wrong?

But thats not all.  The Crows play GWS twice.  They play the Suns twice.  And they play Port twice.  Not only that but the Mighty's play the Suns in round 1, then 3 of the next 4 at home.  Yes.... for once the Mighty's have a decent draw.  Not as good as the Pies seem to get every year but reasonable nonetheless...

In short - you can pencil the Crows in for a top 8 and knocking on the door of the 4... GO YOU GOOD THING!

Round One Part One

It's back!  We've all missed it eh?  And we're starting with the Tinies v the Swans.  Yep, it's going to be a pantsing.  The only question is how much will they win by.  Oh and can Izzy score a goal?  Oh and will the Swans escape without injury?  Swans to win by at least ten goals, Izzy to kick 3 behinds, and Goodesy to escape the curse of Horseboy's SuperCoach team..

Of course the other 8 games are next week... bring it on!

6th - Beagles

Ahhh those were the days eh?  Back in the mid-2000's the Beagles were Premiers, they had Juddy, Kerry and Cousins in the midfield being expertly fed by big Cox.  Then Juddy got jack of the drug taking ways of half the team and went to Carlton for big $$, Cousins went off the rails before starring in his own show, Kerr got injured and reported every second week, and finally what was supposed to be the start of an era ended abruptly to the point where in 2010 the West Tokin Beagles finished Wooden Spooners.

But then last year they were back!  NicNat & Big Cox made a great pairing, Kerr found some form, Glass was good, and basically the whole team performed like the days of old.  The big question this year is will they stay up near the top or drop straight back out?  I'm tipping well and truly up amongst it - top 4 is probably out of the equation as they don't have the easiest of draws, but they'll certainly be top 8 and if they can somehow sneak a home final, watch it.

The Drugs are Back.

Grand Finalists / Wooden Spooners

Your picks are coming in thick n fast - not a lot of surprises... go have a look on the Grand Final/Spooner Picks tab...


And if you haven't got them in yet, start thinking and get sending....

7th - Sinners

If there is one team most likely to drop out of the 8 from my list, I am starting to think it is the Sinners.  They haven't done much to impress pre-season - and I say that despite them performing better that the Bluebaggers.  They just appear to  be on a bit of a spiral down - a bit like the Lions were in the mid-2000's, but without the Premierships to show for it.

Riewoldt is to the Saints what Goodesy is to the Swans but with bigger tear ducts and in slightly greater decay.  Goddard is a damn fine player which is just as well cos he's pretty damn ugly, but like Nicky, he does have a bit to prove in 2012.  Throw in Lenny Hayes, Del Santo and Montagna and you have a reason to think they should be in the 8, but it definitely won't be Top 4.  A new coach won't fix it.

8th - Sydney

The Swans have made the 8 in 8 out of the last 9 seasons.  Thats not a bad effort eh?  They'll make it 9 from 10 in 2012 despite still retaining LRT on the list.  Is that the biggest injustice of the 21st Century AFL?  Let's put this into context. Robert Harvey will never have a Premiership Medallion, but LRT has one. Leon Davis was All Australian in 2011 and is now not on any AFL list, while LRT is STILL playing for the Swans. WTF???

The main concern for the Swans is a major reliance on Goodesy.  He's the most important player for the Swans to the point where without him performing they pretty much won't win.  Fortunately it looks like he is on fire, and with Bolton, Jack, Mummy and Reid along with a pretty decent batch coming on, the Swans should be in the 8 - but without Goodes they will drop like a stone.

Jimmy Stynes

http://www.news.com.au/national/jim-stynes-loses-brave-cancer-battle/story-e6frfkvr-1226304802043

RIP.

9th - Kangaroos

Mmmmm I just finished a lovely Kangaroo fillet marinated in mirin, port, chilli and cracked pepper, beautifully cooked medium rare.  What does this have to do with North Melbourne?  SFA.  But it does taste good.

The Roos have less supporters than EVERYONE.  They should not have been allowed to continue on once they said no to the move north... then south... further north... then to NZ... then to India... then to Ballarat.  Brayshaw should be paying for their upkeep out of his own pocket.  It's not that the Shinboners are crap - far from it - they are a very solid middle of the road kinda team.  But who cares?  Not you.  They'll win enough games to knock on the door with Petrie, Harvey, Swallow, and an over rated Wells, but Top 8?  I don't think so.

NAB Cup, Round 1 & Finals Picks

Ahhh yes the NAB Cup has been won by THE BEST TEAM ON THE PLANET!  The MIGHTY MIGHTY'S!  It's an easy game innit?  While the Crows performed to expectations, the pre-season has not been so kind to the Blues.  0 from 5 may see some re-evaluation in the tipping... who was gonna pick em for the flag???

K, what you need to do now?

1. Put your tips in for round 1 - which this week only has to be the Tinies v Swans
2. Send me your TWO GRAND FINAL PICKS and your WOODEN SPOONER PICK (I will give you until the start of the second part of Round 1)
3. Time to get some cash in folks...

Side Competition - The Longest Streak Comp
Tis called the Winning Streak comp. You need to sign up for the 'Longest Streak Comp'. This has nothing to do with Bernie Vince.

Each week click on the 'streak' tab in your tipping, and choose between 0 and 9 teams that you think are dead certainties to win. Every tip that is correct adds one to your streak. If you get it wrong then your streak is over and it starts again.

At the end of the season the Top 3 will get some $ to be determined depending on numbers entered overall.

10th - Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs.  Who cares?  I've only met one dogs supporter and I've already forgotten their name.  The only thing the dogs are good for are (a) letting out, and (b) beating in Prelim Finals on yer way to back-to-backs.

Now I know what you are all asking... what the hell does this picture have to do with the Western Bulldogs?  Well I'll tell you... it's their coach.  I know... I know...  I don't know who he is either.  I think he is the guy hidden away on their advert for 'the Western Front'... I thought he was just some dude lookin on in the background but no...this is their coach.  

Apparently B Hall isn't with them anymore but B Lake is up for a biggun - he better, cos he is in my SuperCoach team (sorry Brian).

SHE BOUGHT A JEEP.

No seriously, she bought a jeep.

And his mum bought a jeep.  The question is... is it her son... or have TWO women bought a jeep.  I'm looking forward to seeing them both together... in THE SAME JEEP.

The Dogs, Roos, Freo and Bombers will all be around the spot - battling it out for what in previous years was known as Richmondth.  Throw a blanket over em, cos percentage will be the separater.  Just don't buy a Jeep.

Jurrah.

Apparently there's no truth to the rumours that the Dees are going to give him the chop.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/embattled-melbourne-demons-forward-liam-jurrah-says-hes-determined-to-keep-his-afl-dream-alive/story-e6frf3e3-1226296443767

11th - Freeeeee-oooooooo

2011 finished with some controversy for the Purple ones as Harvey was sacked on the grounds that he always looked like he had been slighted and was about to cry.  So in comes Ross Lyon, hoping to bring some stodgy defence to the West and now really... I have no idea where they'll get to. Home ground advantage should be worth something but i can't see them being more than annoyance value to the top 8 - I mean lets be honest, the Paps beat them.

I will NEVER BE BUYING A F**KING JEEP! MICHAEL! YOU CAN STICK THAT JEEP UP YOUR AR$E!

Oh... whoops.. back to the footy.  The Purple Haze.  Bring back the anchor.  The real questions for the Haze are how long can they keep sandilands going, and will Pavlich lift.  Both seemed to get smacked by injuries a bit last year... if they can get back on track, they may challenge for the bottom of the 8... else no show.

12th - The Bombouts

Hmmm looks like Bellchambers is trying to do to Stanton what he had been doing to the Bombers forward movements for years.  The Bombouts are in line for 9 wins according to my scientific calculations, and that simply won't be good enough.  They do have one player I wouldn't mind - Heppell - but beyond that, they can keep em.  The worrying part for the Bombers (un)faithful is not that they rely on Watson, but that they are currently running some kind of school raffle to raise money for a new shed.  Whatever happened to the Mighty Bombers?  The only thing missing is the girlguide cookies.  Actually whatever happened to girlguide cookies?  They were delicious :)

Hmm and now I think of it... not only were they delicious... but they were harder than a majority of the Bombers players (cept for maybe Bellchambers when tackling Stanton).

13th - Melbourne

Oops.  At the time of writing there seems to be a bit going on with a certain Liam Jurrah!  Sound a bit ominous... That aside, the Dees win a few, but the emphasis is on that word - "few".  New coach and a few new assistant coaches with N Craig coming in.  A lotta conjecture over J Watts - should he play forward, should he play back, is he any good, is he completely over rated and going to be slightly worse than koshitsme?

As with most teams the Dees do have a couple of young players coming on (not Watts), but I don't see them improving beyond any other teams.

14th - Paps

The Paps are on the way UP in 2012.  That's saying not much cos 2011 was beyond bad for them.  Even I was getting embarrassed for them.  The Paps only seem to grow testies when they line up against the Crows - it's time to move beyond that you buncha ladies - there are 16 other teams in the comp, not just the Crows.

The removal of Ole Man Cornes and Diana Brogan will help things.  The addition of Brad Ebert will be a major plus in the midfield, and Butcher looks a likely lad, but until they finally decide to get a full time coach to take over from Matty Primus you can keep writing off the seasons.

15th - Brisbane

Much like big JB, the Lions are gonna be in a world of pain this year.  2011 saw them gain a bit of respect with some solid losses, but they were losses, and I can't see where the improvement is gonna come from.  With Mitch Clarke gone and Browny on his last cheekbone, they will be marginally better than the Tigers and Suns, but not by much.  It's gonna be a long season north of the border.

16th - The Suns

The Suns will definitely get a few more runs on the board this year with the development of their juniors, Ablett continuing to rack up the SuperCoach points, Bock using his wife-beating skills in the forward lines, Zac Smith growing another 6 inches taller, and Brennan learning to use two hands.

Unfortunately they still have Josh '8 years ago I was trade bait' Fraser on their list.  Only percentage will keep them above the Tiggers but thats good enough.  Roll on 2013 for the Sunnies.

17th - Tiggers

The Tiggers will be slightly more powerful than this lil teddy bear.  But not much.  I tried to find some wins for them and beyond the Giants, Suns and the standard win over the Bombers, I'm struggling.  In past years you could pencil them in for some early wins just to allow us all the pleasure of seeing their supporters get their hopes up and then crushed like a Roo on the Hay Plains.  But this year they won't even get those.

18th - GWS

The hardest part of the 2012 Season will NOT be picking who is going to finish bottom.  The Giants will struggle to win a game.  Where the Suns had some VERY good established players - Ablett, Bock, Brennan - and still finished at the bottom, the Giants have.... Scully, Davis and Palmer... oh and errr... Cornes... Brogan... McDonald...

While I would love to find the Giants a win this year, I can't.  Pretty Simple.  If the odds on a GWS win get less than $15 all year check the weather forecast and see if they're playing the Bombers.

Tough Gig!

How hard is it working out the top 8 this year?  While the top position is a lock-in, working out who will play off against the Crows to be just another trivia question is a tough gig.  To that end I have gone through the entire season taking into account the likely weather patterns, injuries resulting from Horseboy's SuperCoach selections, mid-season banter on whether Goddard et al move to GWS, and the general lack of ticker that embody the spirit of teams such as the Dees, Tiggers n Bombouts.  So over the next couple of weeks I will divulge the tips that will bring you The Ultimate Success in this years tipping comp...

Bring It On!